{"id":14987,"date":"2017-03-25T09:00:14","date_gmt":"2017-03-25T00:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/?p=14987"},"modified":"2017-05-31T08:52:01","modified_gmt":"2017-05-30T23:52:01","slug":"the-economist-could-donald-trumps-attack-on-the-un-destabilize-the-world-25032017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/2017\/03\/25\/14987","title":{"rendered":"The Economist: Could Donald Trump&#8217;s Attack on the UN destabilize the world? (25\/03\/2017)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000Nikki Haley, US Ambassador to the UN, is trying to reassure everyone in the UN that all the statements from the Trump camp are \u201cjust noise,\u201d but Trump has now proposed in its budget to cut America\u2019s contributions to the UN and its own foreign-aid agency by $10.1bn, or 28% from its previous budget. According to the budget proposal, US contributions to UN Peacekeeping operations will be cut from 28 to 25 percent of the UN peacekeeping budget.<\/p>\n<p><center><figure id=\"attachment_14989\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14989\" style=\"width: 480px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_02.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_02.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"270\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14989\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14989\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><center>The Trump World Tower building towers above the UN secretariat building<\/center><\/br><\/p>\n<div align=\"right\">(Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2017-01-25\/trumps-next-executive-orders-drastically-reducing-us-role-international-organization\" target=\"_blank\">Zero Hedge<\/a>)<\/div>\n<p><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/center><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<p><center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/international\/21719467-president-seems-bent-weakening-global-body-could-donald-trumps-attack-un\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_03.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"160\" height=\"80\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14990\" \/><\/a><\/center><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000In its print edition article dated Mar 25th 2017, the Economist, explains that Donald Trump had proposed to cut $10.1 billion or 28 percent from the State Department&#8217;s budget for US contributions to UN organizations and other foreign aid programs. This is against the statement by US Ambassador, Nikki Haley, that the Trump statements are \u201cjust noise\u201d and need not be taken seriously. The Trump&#8217;s unpredictable approach may end up with China making the running of UN peace operations.<\/p>\n<p><center><figure id=\"attachment_14991\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14991\" style=\"width: 448px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_04.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_04.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"448\" height=\"336\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14991\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14991\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><\/p>\n<div align=\"right\">(Source: AFP)<\/div>\n<p><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/center><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000The following is the print edition article of the <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/international\/21719467-president-seems-bent-weakening-global-body-could-donald-trumps-attack-un\" target=\"_blank\">Economists<\/a><\/em>.<br clear=\"all\" \/><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000WHEN the draft of an executive order by Donald Trump saying he would cut America\u2019s contribution to the UN by 40% was leaked in January, alarm bells began clanging not just at the organisation\u2019s headquarters in New York but in chanceries all over the world. America pays for a good quarter of the body\u2019s costs and even more for its 16 peacekeeping missions that strive to mitigate some of the bloodiest conflicts on earth. Could he mean what he said? On March 16th, when the White House unveiled its budget for 2018, the answer was a defiant yes. The State Department, which channels America\u2019s contributions to the UN and its own foreign-aid agency, was told to chop $10.1bn from its budget, a cut of 28%.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000For sure, this is but the start of months of bargaining between the White House and Congress. Several prominent Republicans, as well as an array of Democrats, said they would oppose cuts on such a scale. Moreover, what was dubbed the \u201cskinny budget\u201d was short on detail. Some saw it as theatre\u2014\u201cA Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again\u201d, as Mr Trump described it\u2014that was not intended to be enacted as drafted. But even if the cuts were to be halved in size during negotiations, they would still punch a big hole in the UN\u2019s pocket. And no one now bets that Mr Trump does not mean what he says about pulling back from the world.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000Some programmes are to be protected. Security aid to Israel, worth $3.1bn a year, will be kept \u201cat an all-time high\u201d. Pledges to Gavi, previously known as the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation, the President\u2019s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (better known as PEPFAR) and anti-malaria schemes will be fulfilled. But funds for climate-change programmes will cease (see <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/international\/21719466-and-signal-they-send-even-worse-donald-trumps-proposed-budget-cuts-will-be-bad\" target=\"_blank\">article<\/a><\/strong>). And within the State Department\u2019s remit, \u201cthe US would not contribute more than 25% for UN peacekeeping costs\u201d. At last count, it was paying around 28%.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000It is unclear how America\u2019s foreign commitments, particularly to the UN, will change. Countries\u2019 payments to the organisation are of two sorts: \u201cassessed contributions\u201d, calculated according to GDP, adjusted every three years and then written in stone; and a web of \u201cvoluntary\u201d agreements, negotiated by each country, usually yearly, for funding the gamut of UN agencies, such as the World Food Programme, the High Commission for Refugees and the UN Children\u2019s Fund. Contributions to the general UN budget, which includes the secretariat in New York and its worldwide offices (see chart), and a clutch of activities under its direct control, are \u201cassessed\u201d by formula and compulsorily handed over.<\/p>\n<p><center><figure id=\"attachment_14992\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14992\" style=\"width: 448px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_05.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shasegawa.com\/wp-content\/2008\/2017\/03\/170325_05.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"448\" height=\"248\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14992\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14992\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><\/p>\n<div align=\"right\">(Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/international\/21719467-president-seems-bent-weakening-global-body-could-donald-trumps-attack-un\" target=\"_blank\">Economist<\/a>)<\/div>\n<p><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/center><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000The assessment for the American contribution to the UN\u2019s general budget and programmes under its umbrella in 2016 was 22% of their total cost. America would breach its treaty obligation to the UN if it refused to pay up. A senior official under Barack Obama puts the mandatory cost of American contributions to international organisations (including outside the UN arena) in 2015 at more than $4.2bn, and voluntary ones at $5-6bn. So even if the State Department were to slash non-UN activities, by closing embassies, say, it would have to pare its voluntary contributions to a range of UN agencies to the bone.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000Mr Trump could reduce or end America\u2019s contributions to UN peacekeeping missions at fairly short notice, though his proposed overall drop from 28% to 25% would let most continue. The five biggest are in the Central African Republic, Congo, Mali, Sudan\u2019s Darfur region and South Sudan. The mandate for the Congo mission comes up for renewal next month. \u201cEverything is on the table,\u201d says Peter Yeo, a former State Department officer who helped negotiate America\u2019s payment of arrears when Bill Clinton was president and now heads the Better World Campaign, which urges America to support the UN. \u201cThe action,\u201d he adds with tentative optimism, \u201cis now moving to the Hill,\u201d where Mr Trump\u2019s slash-and-burn proposals may, he hopes, be moderated. A more detailed budget is not likely for another two months. \u201cSo far the figures just don\u2019t add up,\u201d says an official at the Bill &#038; Melinda Gates Foundation, which has distributed nearly $37bn in aid since 2000. The idea, popular in Mr Trump\u2019s circle, that private charities can fill the void is false, she adds, noting that many of her foundation\u2019s projects depend on partnerships with the state.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000The UN organisations most reliant on American generosity are humanitarian, such as the food programme (35% paid for by America) and the refugee agency (38%), which help millions of starving and displaced people. If these, along with the peacekeepers, were to be gutted, the risks of famine and war would soar. In the long run that might well cost America more, if it eventually felt obliged to pick up the pieces. Mr Gates argues relentlessly that aid and development help Americans by enhancing global stability. So, recently, did 120 generals in a letter to Mr Trump.<\/p>\n<p><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<div style=\"font-size:11pt;\"><strong>Back in Turtle Bay<\/strong><\/div>\n<p>\u3000Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, the UN\u2019s secretary-general since the start of the year, has been careful not to pick a fight with the American president. Mr Guterres and the envoys of just about all governments represented at the UN are pinning some hope on Nikki Haley, Mr Trump\u2019s ambassador there. According to a UN insider, \u201cshe has been trying to reassure everyone in the UN that all these statements from the Trump camp are just noise.\u201d In the past week that will have got much harder.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000Mr Guterres, who has a reputation as a consensus-builder, has quietly let it be known that he will embark on a cost-cutting and streamlining campaign of his own. Britain, France and America have tended to work together in the Security Council, often in opposition to the other two veto-wielders, China and Russia. Now the British and French are hoping desperately to bind Mr Trump back with them into the UN system, fearing he may cosy up to Russia\u2019s president, Vladimir Putin, or by default let China make the running.<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u201cThat would mark a really dangerous shift in power dynamics at the UN,\u201d says the former Obama official. \u201cEverything so far with this administration has been so haphazard. It\u2019s all so hard to predict.\u201d Congress may persuade Mr Trump to see merit in some aspects of the UN. But that, right now, seems like a losing battle.<\/p>\n<p><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<div style=\"font-size:7pt;\" align=\"right\">(Cited from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/international\/21719467-president-seems-bent-weakening-global-body-could-donald-trumps-attack-un\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/international\/21719467-president-seems-bent-weakening-global-body-could-donald-trumps-attack-un<\/a>)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000Nikki Haley, US Ambassador to the UN, is trying to reassure everyone in the UN that all the statements from the Trump camp are \u201cjust noise,\u201d but Trump has now proposed in its budget to cut America\u2019s contributions to the UN and its own foreign-aid agency by $10.1bn, or 28% from its previous budget. According to the budget proposal, US contributions to UN Peacekeeping operations will be cut from 28 to 25 percent of the UN peacekeeping budget.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news2017","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14987"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14987\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15246,"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14987\/revisions\/15246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gpaj.org\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}